Sowing Seeds vs. Harvesting Profits in the 2026 World Order
Commodity investment 2026 is quickly becoming the cornerstone of the new global economic order. Hello, readers. Growth Papa here.
It has been three months since I first warned of the “commodity shock” triggered by escalating US-China tensions. Since then, we have witnessed a broad rally across virtually every strategic mineral resource—from copper and aluminum to lithium. Copper and aluminum-related equities, in particular, have experienced powerful overshooting, firmly taking center stage in the global market.
Today, I am reviewing the past quarter and recalibrating our strategy within the evolved policy environment of 2026. It is time to determine where to harvest and where to plant new seeds.
1. The 2026 World Order: “Currency Fades, Physical Assets Arrive”
At the 2026 Davos Forum, Ray Dalio reflected on the previous year with a definitive observation:
“The most decisive change in 2025 was the collapse of the existing monetary order. Rather than an AI or tech stock frenzy, the markets were truly driven by the surge in physical assets like gold and silver, alongside the structural weakening of dollar hegemony.”
The global supply chain shift and persistent geopolitical instability have sparked intense volatility in key commodities. This is no longer an issue that liquidity alone can resolve; it has become a matter of national survival, requiring strategic cooperation or even assertive force to secure resources. Consequently, physical assets have emerged as the premier inflation hedge in this new era. This underlying competition for raw materials has naturally funneled massive global investment into the defense sector.
2. Sector Assessment: “Seeding vs. Harvesting”
Below is the updated tactical response for strategic mineral resources based on the “Core Commodities Matrix” established three months ago.
Core Commodities Matrix at a Glance
| Category | US (Core/High Growth) | China (Core/High Growth) | Korea (Core/High Growth) |
| Rare Earths | MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Critical Metals (CRML) | Northern Rare Earth (600111), JL MAG (6680.HK) | – |
| Battery Materials | Albemarle (ALB), Lithium Americas (LAC), Elevra Lithium (ELVR) | CATL (300750), Ganfeng Lithium (002460), Ronbay Tech (688005) | EcoPro BM (247540), POSCO Future M (003670), LNF (066970) |
| Copper | Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | Jiangxi Copper (600362), Zijin Mining (601899), Western Mining (601168) | Poongsan (103140) |
| Aluminum | Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum (CENX) | Aluminum Corp of China (601600) | – |
| Uranium | Cameco (CCJ), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), Centrus Energy (LEU) | China National Nuclear (1816), China Uranium (000931), CGN Mining (1164) | – |
| Palladium / PT | Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) | Jinchuan Mining Group (2899) | – |
| Specialty Metals | ATI (ATI), Materion (MTRN), Centerra Gold (CGAU) | Rising Nonferrous (600259), CMOC Group (603993) | Korea Zinc (010130) |
Time to Harvest and Rest (Public View)
In these sectors, momentum appears fully priced in following remarkable rallies. Rather than chasing the tail-end of the upside, the focus should shift to risk management and profit realization.
- Chinese Copper: Jiangxi Copper, Zijin Mining, Western Mining.
- Aluminum: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, Aluminum Corp of China.
- Uranium (Mining-Focused): UEC, China Uranium, CGN Mining.
- Palladium/Platinum: Sibanye Stillwater, Jinchuan Mining Group.
- Specialty/Non-ferrous: ATI, Centerra Gold, Korea Zinc.
The Strategy: While copper remains an essential inflation hedge, Chinese equities have experienced narrative-driven overshooting. Aluminum demand is healthy, but energy costs are now fully reflected. In Uranium, while the long-term outlook remains bullish, pure-play miners should be harvested. Conversely, integrated companies with core refining capabilities deserve continued holding.
Where to Endure and Plant New Seeds
Just as our warning three months ago yielded profits, we must now decide where to concentrate those gains for the next cycle.
- Opportunity (Seeding): Fresh entry points are emerging in specific battery raw material sectors (notably outside of the Korean market).
- Holding: In the context of the US-China rivalry, companies with structural moats in core refining and processing technologies—not just raw extraction—are the essential long-term holds.
For a deeper dive into these concrete strategies, including my analysis of the BDI Freight Index as a lead indicator for commodity-driven opportunities, please refer to the premium report below.
[Global In-depth Report by Growth Papa]
Master’s degree in Economics with 16 years of professional experience in business strategy
I strive to balance the insights shared with my general readers and the deep-dive strategies reserved for my premium subscribers. I hope this serves as a valuable compass for your own “Farmer’s Investment” strategy.
I will return as soon as the next in-depth report topic is finalized.
Ciao!